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Mir is on a three fight winning streak in the UFC, and Silva's last bout was a TKO loss to Velasquez's wrestling coach and AKA teammate Daniel Cormier. However, Velasquez is treating this fight the same as the Mir fight, and indeed sees it to be just as dangerous a fight for him.
"Though I've gone from Mir to Silva, I really don't see any kind of drop down in challenge or threat," Velasquez wrote in a blog for FoxSports.com late last week. "Silva is every bit as dangerous as Mir would have been, albeit in different ways. Mir is obviously well known for his submission game, whereas Silva is the sort of guy who is solid everywhere. He isn't great at any one thing, but is good at everything. He can cause problems in the stand-up and also can put guys in trouble on the ground. You can't take him lightly no matter where the fight may go."
Indeed, Velasquez believes the transition in opponents will be much tougher for Mir, despite what he's said recently. He feels Mir will have to make more adjustments in his preparations, and though he sees ways Mir can defeat dos Santos, he also knows it won't be an easy task.
"In their fight, Dos Santos has a clear edge if they both stay on their feet and strike, but Mir has a big edge on the ground," Velasquez said. "The result will depend on who can initiate the action and dictate where the fight ends up. If Mir can drag dos Santos to the ground, he could be in for a good night. If he is unable to, it could be a long and painful one for him."
"Although I believe Mir can beat Dos Santos on the ground, I really struggle to see how he's going to get him down there to work his magic. 'JDS' is a big, strong guy with very good takedown defense and Mir isn't a guy known for shooting in with big takedowns. It could be difficult for him."
Still, it doesn't matter to Velasquez how the fight plays out. His goal is simple either way: beat "Bigfoot," then challenge whomever comes out of this Title fight the victor.
"All I do know is this: No matter who wins the main event on May 26, I'll be watching intently, keen to challenge him at some point in 2012," he said. "Once I get Silva out of the way, I only have eyes for that title belt. I need it back in my life."
Penick's Analysis: A win over Silva will likely vault Velasquez right back into a title fight, though the case won't be the same if the opposite happens. Velasquez would love a chance to avenge his only career loss, and if Mir does pull off the upset than he'll get the fight he was expecting on this event. He's also not off on his assessment of the matchup between JDS and Mir. Save for one thing: we haven't seen dos Santos' ground game, so it's hard to say that Mir has a "big edge" when dos Santos does still hold a brown belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under the Nogueiras. It's quite possible dos Santos is wholly capable of holding his own on the ground, but that's something we won't know until we see it. Regardless, standing in front of the Champ would be a bad idea for Mir, and we'll see if he has anything up his sleeve to turn it into a ground battle.
[Cain Velasquez art by Grant Gould (c) MMATorch.com]
Source: http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/UFC_2/article_13363.shtml
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